Drowning in Data, Thirsty for Understanding
Written 12/22/20
Are you overwhelmed by COVID statistics? Do you find them contradictory or hard to put in perspective? Is it hard to trust the information blared out by the 24-hour news cycle, as it is cherry-picked and then weaponized by pundits of all political stripes?
In my scientific field of medicine, cold, hard facts are crucial. We try not to conclude anything without accurate data. But let’s face it, numbers are not always as cold and hard as we would like. How do we know the information regarding the pandemic is sound and that its interpretation is impartial?
Most of us receive our news and form our opinions while sitting in front of a computer. That is no shame and is often unavoidable. But usually the best way to get to the heart of an issue is to talk to people who are close to a situation. Firsthand observations can speak louder than tables or charts. Personal stories move us more than statistics.
I am close to this situation. I would like to offer some simple observations that may help you gain perspective on the pandemic. The numbers and accounts will be grim. They speak of an impending critical phase in the war on COVID. Nevertheless I write this to convey hope and also to encourage some action steps from all of us.
Simple, Sobering Statistic
Since March 2020 I have had several patients (typically 3 to 5) who were clinically sick with coronavirus infection at any given time. Now the number of my COVID patients is above twenty, and I have resorted to a written list to try and keep track of them.
I cannot wrap my head around the geopolitical charts. I, too, struggle to wade through the deluge of pandemic numbers. But I can certainly bear witness to the challenges and number of those I care for. Their illnesses constitute a real world statistic that could hardly be simpler and more tangible.
Yet I admit there are better people to lend perspective on the pandemic. To find out how things are really going in a war and cut through the propaganda, talk to the soldiers in the trenches. I work on the frontlines, but not in the very heat of battle. The warriors in the teeth of combat are my colleagues in critical care. I’ve always admired them. Now I worry about them.
ICUs are a world of intensity and tragedy, but also triumph. Intensivists thrive on saving lives with almost miraculous skill. They live for the patient who leaves the hospital alive after a life-threatening illness. Here is what the foot soldiers in the trenches have told me:
- The ICU’s in my city are increasing with COVID patient numbers. Some are saved, but greater numbers than we typically see in critically ill patients are dying.
- Some ICU workers are burned out and just one setback away from a complete meltdown. A friend recently lost five patients in one 24 hour period. All of them died directly of COVID. Indeed we recently lost a healthy 22 year old to the disease.
- COVID patients die slowly and inexorably. Another colleague told me that she had never experienced this – the number of patients who die after protracted, lingering courses. Even those who survive stay longer on the ventilator (or ECMO) than is typical. This situation takes a toll on the caregivers.
- In one case a patient who had been in my hospital for 90 days died unexpectedly. It’s difficult to describe the impact on those who spent countless hours and expended great energy to bring this patient back repeatedly from the brink, only to see him unexpectedly succumb to a complication of COVID-19 after three months.
- COVID patients are dying apart from their loved ones. Doctors and nurses are not only caring for the dying, but acting as their families, priests, and confessors.
- One colleague said he was utterly drained by calling family members every day to say that their loved ones are a little bit closer to the grave.
- The dreary, endless ritual of donning and doffing PPE and the alienation of isolation units are corroding morale.
Forget the obsession with the limited resources of PPE and ventilators; I am more concerned about a more precious and scarcer resource: the people who work in ICUs.
Critical, But Momentary Phase
But I am not writing with bad news. I am writing with great news. I believe that victory is at hand. The post-holiday spike will be a critical phase, but I do believe it is the last phase in the war. And, like shell-shocked soldiers awaiting a bloody battle, we can cheer the advent of a weapon that will bring an early end to hostilities.
I personally received a vaccine on 12/17/20. For the record I have had no side effects. Furthermore, the shot was given by a nurse whom I personally know, and I am certain she was not in collusion with devious billionaires or hostile, foreign powers.
I am optimistic that the vaccination process will go even faster than predicted, and that it will prove the deciding factor in the struggle with this global pandemic. I believe that this worldwide convulsion has taken a major turn, and the end of the war is in sight.
But what happens now? What do we do in the meantime?
Dr. Bill Maynard